SD-301f · Module 1

Stage Distribution Analysis

3 min read

A healthy pipeline has a specific shape. It is widest at the top and narrows through each stage. The exact proportions depend on your conversion rates, but the principle is universal: more deals enter the pipeline than exit as wins. When the shape inverts — more deals in late stages than early stages — the pipeline is consuming existing inventory without replenishing it. You will close deals this quarter and have nothing for next quarter. The shape of the pipeline predicts future quarters more reliably than the current quarter's forecast.

Do This

  • Visualize pipeline by stage as a bar chart weekly — the shape tells the story at a glance
  • Compare current distribution against the historical average to spot imbalances early
  • Track the stage distribution trend over time — a narrowing top is a leading indicator of a future pipeline gap

Avoid This

  • Focus only on total pipeline value without examining where the deals sit
  • Accept a pipeline that is heavy in late stages — you are mortgaging next quarter
  • Ignore early-stage pipeline because those deals are "too far out to matter" — they are next quarter's revenue