Stage Aging Analysis

Stage aging measures how long deals spend in each stage compared to the historical average. Deals that age beyond the expected duration are increasingly likely to lose — the longer a deal sits in a stage, the lower its probability of advancing. Stage aging analysis identifies which stages are accumulating stale deals and quantifies the revenue risk from deals that have overstayed their expected time.

Stage Aging Analysis — Current Pipeline

Stage          Avg Days   Deals > 1.5x Avg   Deals > 2x Avg   At-Risk Value
─────────────  ────────   ────────────────    ──────────────    ─────────────
Qualified      8          4 deals             1 deal            $180K
Discovery      14         7 deals             3 deals           $420K
Proposal       12         9 deals ⚠          5 deals ⚠        $780K ⚠
Negotiation    10         3 deals             1 deal            $350K

BOTTLENECK: Proposal stage has 9 deals aging past 1.5x average.
$780K in pipeline value is at elevated loss risk.
Investigate: Are proposals being reviewed? Is pricing competitive?

The aging threshold is specific to each stage and derived from historical data. Calculate the average time deals spend in each stage for closed-won deals separately from closed-lost deals. Won deals typically spend 30-40% less time in each stage than lost deals. When a current deal exceeds the average time-in-stage for won deals, its probability has shifted toward the lost distribution.