Trend Impact Assessment

A confirmed trend requires an impact assessment before it warrants a strategic response. The assessment answers three questions: timing (when will this trend materially affect our market?), magnitude (how significant will the impact be?), and directionality (is this trend an opportunity, a threat, or both?). A trend that will affect your market in 18 months with moderate magnitude is a monitoring item. A trend that will affect your market in 6 months with high magnitude is a strategic planning item. A trend that is affecting your market now with high magnitude is a crisis response item.

## Trend Impact Assessment

Trend: [Name / Description]
Lifecycle Stage: [Emergence / Formation / Establishment]
Confidence: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]

TIMING: When will this trend materially affect our market?
  □ Already affecting (0-3 months)
  □ Near-term impact (3-12 months)
  □ Medium-term impact (12-24 months)
  □ Long-term / uncertain (24+ months)

MAGNITUDE: How significant will the impact be?
  □ Existential (market redefinition)
  □ High (significant competitive shift)
  □ Moderate (positioning adjustment required)
  □ Low (awareness only, no action needed)

DIRECTIONALITY:
  □ Opportunity (aligns with our strengths)
  □ Threat (challenges our position)
  □ Mixed (opportunity + threat depending on response)

RECOMMENDED RESPONSE: [Specific action with timeline]