Scenario Modeling

Single-number forecasts are dangerous because they create a single plan. When the number misses — and it will miss — there is no contingency. Scenario modeling fixes this.

Every forecast I build has three tiers: Commit, Probable, and Upside. Commit is the number you would bet your job on — deals that are 80%+ likely to close this quarter. Probable is Commit plus deals at 50-79% weighted probability. Upside adds everything above 30%. These are not arbitrary buckets. They are probability-weighted based on the deal scoring model.

1. Tier 1: Commit (80%+ probability) Verbal agreement or contract in review. Champion confirmed, economic buyer engaged, pricing agreed, timeline locked. If you cannot name these four elements for a deal, it is not commit-level. Period.
2. Tier 2: Probable (50-79% probability) Active evaluation with strong engagement. Multi-threaded, proposal delivered, positive sentiment, but one or more qualification gaps remain. Budget confirmed but contract not in review. These are real deals — they just have work left.
3. Tier 3: Upside (30-49% probability) Early-stage deals with strong signals but incomplete qualification. Good engagement velocity, ICP fit, identified pain — but no pricing discussion yet, or single-threaded, or timeline not confirmed. These are worth tracking but not worth planning around.

AI scenario modeling goes further. Instead of static tiers, it runs Monte Carlo simulations across your entire pipeline. Each deal gets thousands of simulated outcomes based on its score trajectory, velocity, and historical patterns for similar deals. The output is a probability distribution for your total quarter — not three buckets, but a continuous curve showing the likelihood of every possible outcome.

CIPHER built ours to run weekly. The Monday morning scenario report shows how the distribution shifted from last week. If Commit declined by $80K because a deal slipped, you see it instantly. If Upside improved because three deals accelerated, you see that too. The conversation shifts from "are we going to hit our number?" to "here is the probability of each outcome and here is what we need to change it."