Scenario Ranges and Confidence

A single forecast number is a lie. The honest answer to "what will we close this quarter?" is a range. Best case: every deal at 60% or above closes. Worst case: only deals at 90% or above close. Most likely: the weighted sum. The range communicates the uncertainty that a single number hides. A forecast of $1.2M with a range of $1.1M to $1.3M is a tight prediction — the team can plan with confidence. A forecast of $1.2M with a range of $800K to $1.6M is a volatile pipeline — the team needs contingency plans.

Presenting the range requires executive education. Most leaders want a single number. "Give me the number." The correct response is: "I will give you three numbers and a probability. Best case: $1.4M, 15% chance. Expected: $1.15M, 65% chance. Worst case: $900K, 20% chance." The leader who understands probability uses all three. The leader who insists on one number gets the expected value — but the range exists whether they acknowledge it or not.