Forecast Anomaly Detection

An anomaly in the forecast is a signal that something has changed. The weighted pipeline dropped 18% week over week. Why? Three possible causes: a large deal was lost, multiple deals were down-staged, or engagement across the pipeline declined simultaneously. Anomaly detection surfaces the cause, not just the symptom. The system decomposes the forecast change into its component parts: which deals moved, by how much, and why. The answer is available in minutes instead of the forty-five minutes of manual investigation it would otherwise require.

Upward anomalies are equally important. The forecast jumped 12% because a rep advanced three deals to a later stage on the same day. Was that legitimate progression or a pipeline padding exercise before the weekly review? The anomaly detection flags the pattern. The manager investigates. If the advances are legitimate, the forecast improvement is real. If they are premature, the scores are corrected before the inaccuracy compounds into the quarterly number.