Anatomy of a Stage

A pipeline stage is not a label. It is a specification. Every stage needs five components: a name, a definition, entry criteria, exit criteria, and a probability weight. The name is what people call it. The definition is what it means — precisely, in writing, with no room for interpretation. Entry criteria are the conditions that must be true before a deal enters the stage. Exit criteria are the conditions that must be true before a deal leaves. The probability weight is the historical likelihood that a deal at this stage will close.

1. Entry Criteria What must be true for a deal to enter this stage? For a "Discovery Complete" stage, the entry criteria might be: discovery call completed, pain points documented in CRM, decision-maker identified, and next step scheduled. If any criterion is not met, the deal does not enter. No exceptions.
2. Exit Criteria What must happen for a deal to leave this stage? For a "Proposal" stage, exit criteria might be: proposal reviewed with the buyer in a live meeting, buyer provided specific feedback, and a decision timeline was confirmed. Sending a proposal into the void and hoping does not satisfy exit criteria.
3. Probability Weight The historical win rate for deals that reach this stage. Not a guess — a calculation. If 100 deals entered "Negotiation" last year and 62 closed, the probability weight is 62%. Update quarterly as your data grows. Probability weights based on opinion rather than data are the single biggest source of forecast error.