Stage Granularity Optimization

Too few stages and you cannot see where deals stall. Too many stages and the data gets noisy, reps misclassify constantly, and conversion rates become meaningless. The optimal number of stages is the minimum needed to identify distinct buyer commitments that change the probability of closing. Every stage should have a materially different win probability from the stages adjacent to it.

Stage Probability Test — Do these stages earn their place?

Stage              Win Prob    Delta from Prior
─────────────────  ────────    ────────────────
Lead               5%          (baseline)
Qualified          12%         +7%  ✓ meaningful
Discovery          22%         +10% ✓ meaningful
Solution Design    28%         +6%  ✗ too close to Discovery
Proposal           40%         +12% ✓ meaningful (if merged with above)
Negotiation        65%         +25% ✓ meaningful
Verbal Commit      72%         +7%  ✗ too close to Negotiation

Result: Merge "Solution Design" into "Proposal" stage.
        Merge "Verbal Commit" into "Negotiation" stage.
        Final: 5 stages with meaningful probability deltas.