Longitudinal Tracking Methodology

Reliability tracking requires a systematic record of source claims and their eventual verification status. Each factual claim from a source is logged with the claim content, the date, and the confidence level assigned at the time. When downstream verification confirms or refutes the claim — through primary source confirmation, event outcomes, or corroboration from independent sources — the verification result is recorded. Over time, the hit rate emerges: what percentage of this source's claims proved accurate?

1. Claim Logging Record specific factual claims from each source — not opinions or analysis, but verifiable assertions. "Company X revenue was $45M" is a loggable claim. "Company X is well-positioned for growth" is not. Only verifiable claims contribute to reliability tracking.
2. Verification Recording When a claim is confirmed or refuted by subsequent evidence, record the outcome with the verification source and date. Three statuses: CONFIRMED (independent evidence agrees), REFUTED (independent evidence contradicts), UNVERIFIABLE (no subsequent evidence available). Unverifiable claims are excluded from the hit rate calculation.
3. Hit Rate Calculation Reliability = confirmed claims / (confirmed + refuted claims). A source with 85%+ hit rate over 20+ verified claims earns HIGH reliability. 70-84% earns MEDIUM. Below 70% earns LOW. Below 50% warrants removal from the source registry.