Evidence Weighting Methodology

Not all evidence deserves equal weight. A finding supported by a primary source, an independent secondary source, and a corroborating data point is stronger than a finding supported by three secondary sources that all cite the same primary. Evidence weighting assigns a quantified trust score to each piece of evidence based on its source credibility, independence, recency, and specificity. The weighted evidence feeds into the synthesis, where higher-weight evidence has greater influence on the final assessment.

1. Assign Source Weight Use the five-axis credibility score from source evaluation. The composite score becomes the source weight. A Tier 1 source (score 21-25) carries roughly three times the weight of a Tier 3 source (score 11-15). This is not arbitrary — it reflects the assessed reliability difference.
2. Apply Independence Discount When multiple sources cite the same upstream data, discount the corroboration value. Three reports citing the same Gartner study contribute one independent data point, not three. The independence discount prevents echo-chamber amplification of single findings.
3. Calculate Weighted Confidence For each synthesized finding, the confidence level reflects the weighted evidence. A finding supported by two Tier 1 independent sources earns HIGH confidence. A finding supported by one Tier 1 and two non-independent Tier 2 sources earns MEDIUM. The weighting makes confidence calibration systematic rather than intuitive.