DR-301e · Module 1

Resolving Factual Contradictions

3 min read

Factual contradictions have one correct answer — the challenge is finding it. Resolution follows the source credibility hierarchy: trace each contradicting claim to its primary source, compare the credibility scores of the primary sources, and defer to the higher-credibility source unless there is specific reason to doubt it. When both primary sources have comparable credibility, the more specific source wins. A 10-K filing that reports revenue to the dollar is more reliable than an analyst estimate that reports revenue to the nearest million.

Do This

  • Trace both claims to their primary sources before resolving
  • Defer to the source with higher specificity when credibility is comparable
  • Document the resolution reasoning — future analysts need to know why you chose Source A over Source B
  • If unresolvable, report both values with their sources and confidence levels

Avoid This

  • Average the contradicting values — the average of right and wrong is still wrong
  • Default to the more recent source without checking — newer does not mean more accurate
  • Silently resolve by picking one value and not mentioning the contradiction existed
  • Spend three hours resolving a contradiction that does not affect your conclusions