Health Score Trajectory Analysis

A health score is a snapshot. A trajectory is a prediction. The account at 72 that was at 85 last quarter is in a fundamentally different position than the account at 72 that was at 60 last quarter — even though the snapshot is identical. Trajectory analysis transforms the health score from a number into a direction, and direction is what determines whether the CSM intervenes or monitors. Every health score should be presented with its trajectory: the score, the direction, and the velocity of change.

1. Calculate the Score Trend Measure the health score at consistent intervals (weekly or biweekly) and compute the rolling 30-day trend. A simple linear regression across the last 4-6 data points produces a trend line. The slope of the trend line is the trajectory: positive slope means improving, negative slope means declining, flat means stable. The steepness indicates velocity — how fast the account is changing.
2. Classify the Trajectory Four trajectory classes: Improving (positive slope, >2 points per month), Stable (slope between -2 and +2 per month), Declining (negative slope, >2 points per month), and Accelerating Decline (negative slope increasing in steepness). The classification determines the response: Improving and Stable require monitoring. Declining requires investigation. Accelerating Decline requires immediate intervention.
3. Project the Future Score Extend the trend line forward 30, 60, and 90 days. Where will the score be if the current trajectory continues unchanged? An account at 72 declining 5 points per month will be at 57 in 90 days — well into the amber zone. The projection converts trajectory into a timeline: how long until the account reaches a threshold that requires intervention? That timeline is the lead time for prevention.