Renewal Probability Scoring

Every account approaching renewal should have a renewal probability score — a quantitative estimate of the likelihood of renewal based on health trajectory, engagement patterns, and relationship strength. The score is not a guess and not a hope. It is a calibrated estimate that informs resource allocation, forecast accuracy, and the timing and intensity of renewal preparation. I consider any renewal conversation that starts less than 90 days before expiration "already lost." The renewal probability score should be established at least 180 days out.

1. Score Components The renewal probability score combines four inputs: current health score (weighted 30%), health score trajectory over the past 90 days (weighted 30%), leading indicator composite score (weighted 25%), and relationship depth — number of active stakeholders and champion strength (weighted 15%). The weights reflect that trajectory is as predictive as current state, and leading indicators add predictive power beyond the traditional health score.
2. Probability Bands Convert the composite score into probability bands: 80-100% (high confidence renewal), 60-79% (probable renewal with attention needed), 40-59% (at risk — active intervention required), 20-39% (significant risk — recovery plan needed), below 20% (churn likely — prepare for transition). The bands drive the response intensity.
3. Confidence Calibration Test whether your probability bands actually predict renewal rates. If accounts in the 80-100% band renew at 95%, the band is well-calibrated. If they renew at only 70%, the band is over-confident and the scoring model needs adjustment. Calibrate annually by comparing predicted probabilities against actual renewal outcomes.