Multi-Factor Risk Scoring

Churn prediction from a single factor is a guess. Churn prediction from multiple correlated factors is a model. The multi-factor risk score combines engagement health, adoption depth, outcome achievement, relationship strength, and external factors into a single predictive metric. Each factor contributes independent predictive power — an account can be healthy on four factors and churning on the fifth, and the fifth factor is the one that matters.

1. Internal Factors Factors within the engagement: health score trajectory, adoption depth, TTFV achievement, support ticket volume and severity, promise-to-delivery ratio, and stakeholder breadth. These are the factors you can measure from your own data. They capture the relationship health from your operational perspective.
2. External Factors Factors outside the engagement: client budget cycles, organizational restructuring, competitive evaluation signals, market conditions, and champion career movements. External factors are harder to track but often more predictive than internal factors because they represent forces beyond the engagement's control.
3. Composite Risk Score Weight internal factors at 60% and external factors at 40% in the composite risk score. Internal factors are more consistently measurable. External factors are more predictive when present. The composite provides a balanced view. Calibrate weights against actual churn outcomes annually.