Adjacency Threat Modeling

The threats that disrupt industries rarely come from direct competitors. They come from adjacent players expanding into your market. An adjacency threat is a company that currently operates in a related market and could enter yours with a product extension, acquisition, or strategic pivot. Adjacency threat modeling identifies these potential entrants, assesses the likelihood and timeline of their entry, and monitors for early signals of movement.

1. Map Adjacent Markets Identify markets that share customers, technology, or distribution channels with yours. These are the markets from which adjacency threats will originate. A CRM vendor shares customers with a competitive intelligence vendor. A cloud infrastructure provider shares technology with a data analytics vendor.
2. Assess Entry Barriers For each adjacent market, evaluate what would be required for a company to enter your market. Technology development? Sales channel build-out? Regulatory compliance? Acquisition of a current player? Lower barriers mean higher threat probability.
3. Monitor for Entry Signals Hiring in your domain, partnerships with companies in your market, patent filings in your technology area, and executive public statements about market expansion. These are the leading indicators that an adjacency threat is materializing.