CI-301g · Module 2

Scenario Presentations for Boards

3 min read

Boards respond well to scenario frameworks because they align with how fiduciary decision-making works — evaluating potential outcomes and choosing responses before the outcome is known. Board-level scenario presentations use three scenarios: base case (most likely, 50-60% probability), upside case (favorable developments, 20-30% probability), and downside case (unfavorable developments, 15-25% probability). Each scenario includes the competitive landscape implication, the financial impact estimate, and the pre-planned organizational response.

Do This

  • Assign probabilities that sum to approximately 100% — the board uses these for risk-weighted planning
  • Specify trigger indicators for each scenario — the board should know what to watch for
  • Include pre-planned responses — the board approves response frameworks, not reactive improvisation
  • Update scenarios quarterly based on new intelligence — the board sees how scenarios evolve

Avoid This

  • Present extreme scenarios (0% or 100% probability) — they are not useful for planning
  • Present scenarios without trigger indicators — the board cannot monitor progress without them
  • Present scenarios without response plans — awareness without preparation is anxiety, not intelligence